Less Than 1 Chance in 479 Million Moses Made Up The Creation Account
Being a mathematician, I like to think about things like this. There are twelve events in the Biblical account of creation that science has confirmed are correct and in the correct order. So I ask myself, what are the chances of just guessing the correct order.
Here are the events
1. Light separated from darkness
2. Creation of the earth covered in water
3. The separation of the dry land from the seas
4 – 6. The creation of plants in a particular order – grasses, plants with seeds and fruit bearing trees
7. The placing of the heavenly bodies in relationship to the earth. This is often explained as the clearing of the atmosphere (from one composed mostly of water vapor and carbon dioxide to one with more oxygen due to plant photsynthesis) enough to see these creations.
8-11 The creation of animal life in a particular order – fish, birds, modern land animals, live stock
12. The creation of man
Think of the problem like this. Take a deck of cards. Keep just one suit -let’s say hearts. Toss out the ace. Hand the remaining twelve cards to a one year old child. Ask him/her to hand you the cards one at a time. In order. What are the chances said toddler will start with the two and give them all to you in order right up to the king? It’s a basic probability question (no, come back! forget I said anything about math.) I’ll just tell you the answer. It’s one chance in 479,001,600. (If you want the formula it’s below) In other words Moses had less than one chance in 479 million of just correctly guessing.
Now compare this to other creation stories or myths. Many of these have remnants of the true creation story in place. Most leave out the hard and fast details found in Genesis. Many don’t even come close to actual events or the order of actual events.
What’s the simplest explanation? Moses actually just did guess it correctly? The ancients knew a lot more about science and the origins of the earth than their records show? Or Moses got it straight from the creator of the universe during one of his “face to face” talks with God (Exodus 33:11) or from information handed down to him from ancient prophets?
To me the simplest explanation is Moses got it straight from the creator.
The chance of getting the first card correct is 1 in 12. If you get that correct you have eleven cards left. The chance of getting the next card correct is 1 in 11. What are the chances of getting the first and second cards correct? It’s 1 in 12 times 1 in 11 (1/(12*11) or 1 in 132. So the answer for getting all twelve in order is 1 in (12*11*10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1) or 1 in 479,001,600.
Iff you believe there is proof of a world wide flood (see creationscience.com) and also that when the Bible mentions the time of Peleg when the earth was divided is referring to the splitting apart of the continents rather than a simple division of lands among people, you now have fourteen events in order. What are the chances of that happening? 1 in 87,178,291,200 or basically 1 in 87 billion which is more people than have ever lived on the earth.